The Post Social Age

110 Million Americans are walking around with a location aware, data connected, super computer in their pockets. Things are about to get very interesting. 

For some of us with ADHD and others with bipolar disorders, mania or depression, we already augment our mental functions with chemicals. How big of a stretch is it for people to use mild electric field (not brain shock) to “stimulate” our mental capabilities? 

Snyder hypothesizes that all people possess savant-like abilities in a dormant form, but that savants have “privileged access” to less-processed, lower-level information. In a normal brain, top-down controls suppress the barrage of raw data our brains take in, enabling us to focus on the big picture.

“We all have that information,” Snyder said, “but our brains are deliberately wired not to see it.”

The nine dots problem. Image: Blleininger Using brain stimulation, he thinks it’s possible to temporarily remove that mental suppression and unlock the savant inside each of us. In their latest study, published in April in Neuroscience Letters, Snyder and graduate student Richard Chi tested people’s performance on a geometric puzzle called the nine dots problem.

Sensors and the the “internet of things” is going to be huge in a way we can’t even imagine. It will not only extend the Internet into the physical world, it will distribute the computing function outside the computer into everyday objects like signs, cars and our clothing. It won’t matter that our watches will be to under-powered to do much useful (for now), combined with the phone in our pocket and the sensors in the street, it will be effectively a supercomputer that’s contextually aware of me and my environment. 

Now consider what happens when you combine trillions of sensors with another disruptive force, what we call pervasive memory. Every time we use a digital device, we create a record of our actions—a trail of digital breadcrumbs that create a complex and comprehensive tapestry of our life. They reveal where we go, with whom we interact, and what we’re interested in, and in many ways, who we are.

These records, stored in databases around the world, document not only what is happening in your life, but also in the lives of most other people in the world. The more digital devices that exist, the more pervasive memory will become. In fact, most companies have the ability to remember everything about their customers—but they don’t. (Which leaves a huge opportunity for smart, entrepreneurial competitors.)

Think about the possibilities. Digital sensors, everywhere, gathering information about everything. And companies that are actually capable of remembering information for customers, instead of just about them.

You can register to vote via Facebook. Wow. We’re one step away from voting with “likes”. 

Washington state is the first state to get hip to social media for its voter registration. According to the Associated Press, the secretary of state’s office announced today that it will feature an app on its Facebook page letting residents register to vote.

Normal infographic stuff past the link, but here’s some useful stuff:

• 58% of Social Gamers are over 40 years old
• 29% are Married with children
• 79% have a college degree or better
• 44% earn over $50,000 per year
• 8% of people access the games from a mobile phone

Yes, some of us. See also: Society, Madness and Social Media.

Much like moving to an industrial urban society has created agoraphobics, some people already have an irrational fear of being active in social media. As everything becomes connected and social, both online and off, how will digital agoraphobics function in this new society?

Elon Musk is like the entrepreneurial equivalent of Nikola Tesla. 

Musk is known for pushing the boundaries, by founding PayPal, Tesla Motor Co., and SpaceX, each of which pushed the boundaries of what insiders thought was possible for a startup. Now, each of the companies are worth many billions of dollars. So when Musk says something crazy, it’s not just some guy off his rocker. It’s a guy who knows what he is talking about.

When asked what Musk was looking to do in the future, he responded with his typical exuberance for pushing the boundaries. Here are a few ideas that Musk is considering for the future:

1. An electric-powered jet. According to Musk, there are some serious drawbacks for rocket-powered jets, which could be rectified with an electric jet. Quicker take-offs and landing, faster speeds, and decreased drag.
2. Fusion. Musk believes that fusion power is a possibility for the future. A magnetic type of fusion, according to Musk, “a relatively standard type of fusion, if you will.”
3. The Hyperloop. Musk’s boldest idea is a fifth mode of transportation, which would displace the other modes of transportation (cars, trains, planes, boats). According to Musk, this would enable people to travel between LA and San Francisco in less than thirty minutes, would be self-sustaining, and would be cheaper.

Pretty interesting. Most of the predictions are based on their being 8 Billion people on the planet and most of the large trends continuing on at their current pace. It doesn’t really dig into what our day to day lives will be like, except that America won’t be the top dog anymore. 

So what will the Americans do when the Chinese hegemony further exposes its full body? Not much. I believe in a friendly resolution of the potential conflict between China and the United States, because the United States also has enough resources inside its boundaries to run a self-sufficient shop for its inhabitants. It is true that the country currently depends on vast oil imports from abroad, but like China, the United States has enough coal and shale gas to run its economy for a long time (assuming little real GDP growth in the country over the next 40 years, as I do). It has large agricultural muscle (more than sufficient for its domestic population—and if Americans decide to eat more healthily, also for quite a bit of biofuels). Furthermore the United States has some space that will be livable after climate change. Water may be a problem where it is currently needed, but activities can and will be moved if that is required to have enough water. And GMO crops will be used large-scale to reduce water scarcity, despite their drawback. If the American democracy finally decides to try to solve its obvious societal problems in a collaborative manner, the U.S. investment capacity is huge and the problems solvable.

I think the latter sentence contains the essence of the U.S. fate over the next 40 years. The United States could maintain its hegemony if it decided to do so. But I don’t think the American system of governance will be capable. Quick, bipartisan decision making is certainly not a U.S. strength. And I see little that will change this fact on a 40-year horizon. Since the country is already rich, and the resources are there at least for living at a slightly lower footing, the United States can allow itself to slide into a secondary role, as a provincial and self-content country. Much like Europe smoothly moved down to second rank after the two World Wars.

I’m as excited as any non-material scientist* geek can be about 3D printing. I think it’s going to be immensely disruptive (which is my gauge for how excited to be about something). But my favorite part of this article had to be the first comment:

“This is going to revolutionize miniature wargaming.”

I’m obviously not as excited as this guy is. 

*My brother is a material scientist and he’s way more excited than me. 

If you’re interested in mobile payments and alternative banking go read this article and the research. My highlights below:

A staggering 80% of all transactions processed worldwide, according to the survey sample, were processed in East Africa. The survey further identified 8 of the fast-growing mobile money services enjoying a similar (if less spectacular) growth path to Mpesa. Six of these eight services are in East Africa, and after Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda, the mobile money wave is now reaching Rwanda. Third, 68% of all mobile money transactions were airtime top-up transactions.

And on the challenges of the business model:

While operator stored-value accounts may emulate some elements of a bank account, with some ‘bank-like’ functionality, (eg. the ability to pay), an operator stored value account and a bank account are very different beasts, defined by different rules and regulations that govern what they can and can’t do.

As a consequence, the business model for operator led mobile money does not, in my view, necessarily stack up for operators. The reason is that legislative compliance has ensured that all operator mobile money services (including Mpesa) keep an equivalent value of the operator stored value, on deposit in a trust account at a bank or banks. For example, if an operator holds US $10 of account holders money in a operator hosted wallet, it must have US $10 on deposit in a licensed bank’s trust account (similar to an attorneys’ or accountants’ trust account).

This means the operator cannot access (or leverage) those funds either as working capital, nor can it derive any benefit in the form of interest or access to surplus. Very different from a bank whose core business is taking in deposits and lending money out.

This really extends the idea of wearable computing. We’re heading towards a future where computing and all of the supporting functions, will be distributed across a variety of wearable “devices.” 

Things are going to be very interesting. 

First cyborgs, now clones. 

At the moment, the biggest roadblocks are institutional. Thoroughbred racing will only register foals that are bred with natural mating, so cloned animals can’t compete in any of the major races. (Even artificial insemination is off-limits.) But Russell and others are hoping a steady supply of well-bred horses will change their minds, and there’s reason to believe they’re right. Just last month, the Fédération Equestre Internationale opened up international competition to clones and their descendants, which means Russell’s brood is now eligible to compete in the Olympics.

More wearable computing innovation. This is pretty cool:

Microsoft’s 10th annual Imagine Cup, a competition focusing on student technology innovations, ended today with a Ukrainian team taking the top place prize of $25,000. Team quadSquad developed a pair of sensory gloves, called EnableTalk, that translate sign language gestures into speech using a Bluetooth-enabled Windows Phone and Microsoft’s Speech and Bing APIs. The team’s project is designed to improve the lives of deaf and mute individuals by allowing them to communicate verbally.

Microsoft and Microsoft Imagine Cup are clients but I was not involved in this years competition.